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research-article

Probabilistic Prediction of Total Fatigue Life of Pipes Under Turbulent Fluid mixing

[+] Author and Article Information
Oriol Costa Garrido

ASME Membership Reactor engineering division, Jožef Stefan Institute Jamova cesta 39, SI-1000, Slovenia
oriol.costa@ijs.si

Samir El Shawish

Reactor engineering division, Jožef Stefan Institute Jamova cesta 39, SI-1000, Slovenia
samir.elshawish@ijs.si

Leon Cizelj

ASME Membership Reactor engineering division, Jožef Stefan Institute Jamova cesta 39, SI-1000, Slovenia
leon.cizelj@ijs.si

1Corresponding author.

ASME doi:10.1115/1.4036736 History: Received October 17, 2016; Revised May 09, 2017

Abstract

Large sets of fluid temperature histories and a recently proposed thermal fatigue assessment procedure are employed in this paper to deliver more accurate statistics of predicted lives of pipes and their uncertainties under turbulent fluid mixing circumstances. The wide variety of synthetic fluid temperatures, generated with an improved spectral method, results in a set of estimated distributions of fatigue lives through linear one-dimensional heat diffusion, thermal stress estimates and fatigue assessment codified rules. The results of the fatigue analysis indicate that, in order to avoid the inherent uncertainties due to comparatively short fluid temperature histories to the estimated fatigue lives, a conservative safe design against thermal fatigue could be attempted with the lower bounds of the predicted life distributions, such as the 5% failure probability life (5% of samples fail). The impact of the convection heat transfer coefficient on the predictions is also studied in a sensitivity analysis. This represents a detailed attempt to correlate the uncertainties in the physical fluid mixing conditions and heat transfer to the estimated fatigue life using spectral methods.

Copyright (c) 2017 by ASME
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