This paper presents a method for the propagation of uncertainty, modeled in a probabilistic framework, through a model-based simulation of rainflow on a rough terrain. The adopted model involves a system of conservation equations with associated nonlinear state equations. The topography, surface runoff coefficient, and precipitation data are all modeled as spatially varying random processes. The Karhunen-Loeve expansion is used to represent these processes in terms of a denumerable set of random variables. The predicted state variables in the model are identified with their coordinates with respect to the basis formed by the Polynomial Chaos random variables. A system of linear algebraic deterministic equations are derived for estimating these coordinates.
Probabilistic Modeling of Flow Over Rough Terrain
Contributed by the Fluids Engineering Division for publication in the JOURNAL OF FLUIDS ENGINEERING. Manuscript received by the Fluids Engineering Division September 4, 2001; revised manuscript received November 12, 2001. Associate Editor: G. Karniadakis.
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Ghanem, R., and Hayek, B. (November 12, 2001). "Probabilistic Modeling of Flow Over Rough Terrain ." ASME. J. Fluids Eng. March 2002; 124(1): 42–50. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.1445138
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